Stock

Remember Those 3 Signs of Inflation to Watch?

Published

January 25, 2024

As a follow-up to a daily I wrote earlier in January called “Super Cycles Do Not Just Fade Away”, yesterday’s January 23rd daily was all about one of the three indicators that can get us prepared for more inflation.

On January 5th, sugar was still trading under 22 cents. Since then, SUGAR is up another 15%. A quote from yesterday:

“Most noteworthy is the notion of super cycles. Sugar is a great example of a 400% move higher since 2020, followed by a near 40% move lower. And currently, a 20% move up since it reached the nadir of 20.00.

“Volatility — yes — is the inherent nature of a super cycle.”

The second indicator I wrote about on January 5th was how SILVER performs relative to gold. When silver begins to outperform gold, that is generally an inflationary sign. This is a good time to remind you that the chart of CPI overlaying the 1970s with current times lines up incredibly well. Has CPI troughed?

With so many saying inflation is over, clearly, they have not been paying enough attention. Maybe now they will.

Silver, for the second day in a row, is outperforming gold. The chart of March futures shows us that momentum could be just about to flash a mean reversion. Furthermore, $22.00 is a solid risk point, with overhead resistance at $24.

The 3rd sign is the DOLLAR, and if it makes a more drastic move lower from its current rangebound price action.

The dollar is wedged between the 50 (blue) and 200 (green) moving averages. We can hardly say that it is collapsing, or giving us cause for major concern right now. Momentum is declining, though, and a move under the 50- and 200-MAs on our Real Motion indicator might raise some eyebrows — especially if the price fails 102.

This week, we have PCE numbers coming out. This is a lagging indicator, not a leading indicator. We can assume that the number will be subdued, which should give the Fed room to discuss rate cuts for March. Hence, we can be patient on the inflation plays for now — but certainly not complacent.

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Coming Up:

January 25: F.A.C.E. with Dale Pinkert & Live Coaching & CNBC Asia

January 30:Breakfast Bites, Singapore Radio

February 2: Benzinga Pre-Market Show

February 5: Money Show Life with Chuck Jaffe

February 21-23: The Money Show in Las Vegas

Weekly: Business First AM, CMC Markets